IGD UK Food Market Forecasts

The total UK food and drink market is predicted to be worth £315.2bn by 2028, experiencing a growth of 19% from 2023 (£265bn), according to a unique new forecast from IGD that presents a combined outlook covering eating in and eating out.

Merging IGD’s sought after UK retail and eating out forecasts, the new outlook provides a total picture of the challenges and opportunities across the whole food and drink market over the next five years, including a comparison and breakdown of both sectors.

Forecasted growth for the total market is driven largely by inflation, which IGD predicts peaked in March 2023. However, growth is down in real terms across the total landscape due to the impact the cost-of-living crisis is having on consumer spending, with the eating out sector more impacted as consumers switch to eating at home to save money.

In retail, consumers are also trading down to private label and discount options. By 2025 the market will begin to stabilise as inflation lowers and household disposable incomes rise.

IGD’s latest food-to-go market outlook forecasts the value of the market and its five sectors to 2028.

These forecasts are aligned with our eating out and retail channel forecasts , covering the food-to-go market specifically across the following five sectors:

• Coffee and drinks specialists
• Fast food specialists
• Food-to-go specialists
• Convenience stores, forecourts and other retailers
• Supermarkets and hypermarkets

The total value of the UK food-to-go market in 2023 is forecast to reach £22.9bn – a 6.2% increase from 2022. However, the main driver of this growth is inflation. Declining frequency, penetration and down-trading means that in real terms, the market will be down 3.3% vs 2022.

Real growth will return in 2024, but growth will be driven by inflation.